“悬崖”边的美国茶叶经济Over the Cliff

Few tea ventures deployed parachutes capable of breaking the fall as the world’s economies catapulted over the second quarter cliff.

随着世界经济在第二季度的悬崖式弹跳，几乎没有茶叶企业能够安稳落地。

美国经济在疫情期间遭受历史性衰退

（2020年第二季度美国经济下降32.9%）

数据来源：美国经济分析局

The result is closure of several high-profile tea retailers including small independents including 10-year-old Wenham Tea House in Massachusetts and 27-year-old Lucy’s Coffee & Tea in Birmingham, Ala. The Samovar Tea Lounge’s three San Francisco locations are “hibernating” for an unspecified time and the Floating Mountain Tea House will relocate from New York’s upper west side to Croton-on-Hudson upstate. Restaurants that featured fine tea, including Augustine in New York’s Beekman hotel, Vaucluse on Park Avenue and “even the glitzy McDonald’s flagship store off Times Square closed,” according to a list maintained by Eater New York. In July DAVIDsTEA permanently shuttered 213 locations including 42 in the U.S. leaving only 18 in Canada.

几家备受瞩目的茶叶零售商相继关闭，包括小型独立企业，位于马萨诸塞州的具有10年历史的“Wenham茶”和位于阿拉巴马州伯明翰开业27年的“Lucy的咖啡与茶”。Samovar 茶室在旧金山的三个店铺也是“休息”状态，具体期限未定。“浮山茶馆”将从纽约上西区迁至哈德逊河畔克罗顿北部。根据《纽约食客》的一份名单，包括纽约Beekman酒店的“奥古斯丁”，公园大道上的Vaucluse以及时代广场外的麦当劳旗舰店在内的特色茶餐厅都关门了。7月，“大卫的茶”永久关闭了213个门店，其中包括美国的42个门店，而加拿大只保留了18个门店。

The U.S. experienced a record 9.5% drop in economic output, that if left unchecked before the year ends could lead to an unprecedented 32.9% annualized decline in GDP. Europe experienced a 12.1% decline, its worst contraction on record. Canada, which has suffered many fewer infections and COVID-19 deaths than the EU and US, estimates its economic activity will decline 12%, according to Statistics Canada. Retail sales in all the Western countries signal a deep recession with several segments, including food service, plummeting from the end of March and continuing their decline through April. Retail rallies began in May except in the U.S. where a new surge of infections led to a loss of steam by July.

美国的经济产出下降了9.5％，如果在年底前任其发展，可能导致年度GDP下降32.9％。欧洲经济下降12.1％，是有记录以来的最大跌幅。加拿大统计局的数据显示，虽然加拿大受新冠疫情感染的人数少于欧盟和美国，但估计其经济活动将下降12％。西方所有国家的零售额预示了，包括食品服务业在内的多个细分市场已经严重衰退，从3月底开始暴跌，持续至4月。零售业从5月起已开始回暖，但美国除外。美国的新冠感染病例激增，零售业在7月之前都呈萎靡态势。

The descent was especially rapid and painful in the U.S. Grocery sales figures are generally good as millions of customers that purchased tea at restaurants and cafes now brew at home. Online sales spiked last spring but are flattening. The tea shop category mirrors the fate that has be fallen small independently owned cafes and bars with some segments such as Sunday afternoon tea in tony hotels and at cozy Victorian tearooms located in southern tourist towns virtually annihilated.

在美国，这种下降特别迅速且令人心痛。如今，数百万曾经在餐厅和咖啡厅购买茶叶的顾客选择在家泡茶，茶叶销售情况总体良好。去年春天，茶叶线上销售激增，但正在趋于平缓。一些独立的小型咖啡馆和酒吧已经衰落，例如托尼酒店的周日下午茶以及位于南部旅游城镇的舒适的维多利亚式茶室。

“Afternoon tea was devastated in the U.S. in particular—most of those businesses didn’t have a way to pivot online or offer tea-to-go,” writes Abraham Rowe, founder of Sinensis Research in Washington, D.C. Rowe observes that online sales proved to be a lifesaver, “people were loyal to some local shops, and are now shopping online from them.”

华盛顿特区茶叶研究中心创始人亚伯拉罕·罗维（Abraham Rowe）写道：“下午茶产业在美国基本被毁，因为大多数企业无法在线进行交易或提供即饮茶。”线上销售被证明是救命稻草，“人们热衷于某些商店的茶，现在会在网上购买他们的产品。”

As brick and mortar sales at tea merchants slipped over the precipice, online sales increased but not uniformly. An updraft enabled Amazon to glide to the bottom with a year-over-year increase of 34% in tea sales, totaling $29 million for the 52 weeks ending in May, according to Hinge Global. Walmart generated an unexpected $4 billion during the first quarter, up 4% over the same period compared to the previous year. The company announced it intends to become a “omnichannel” business. During the past year Walmart consolidated its online and physical store operations and is focused on expanding e-commerce rather than building new stores.

随着茶叶实体店销售额下滑，在线销售额有所增长。根据Hinge Global的数据，茶叶线上销售额同比增长34％，截至5月，52周内总计达到2900万美元。沃尔玛在第一季度收获了意想不到的40亿美元，同比增长4％。沃尔玛宣布打造“全渠道”的业务模式，在过去的一年中，沃尔玛巩固了其在线商店和实体店的运营，并专注于扩大电子商务，而不是建立新的商店。

Amazon and Walmart are the exceptions amid a pandemic that devastated the retail sector. While customers ordered groceries online and had food delivered, very few tea ventures had time to deploy a Plan B. DAVIDsTEA, headquartered in Montreal, Canada, in March closed 231 locations eliminating $12.1 million in second quarter sales. Sales for the three months ended May 2 declined 27.3% to $32.2 million. Wholesale and online revenue climbed $9.3 million to $17.0 million. Online sales reflect the trend identified by Rowe at Sinensis Research: specialty tea buyers online remain loyal to their local tea shop whether in a mall or downtown.

在这样一场破坏零售业的大流行中，亚马逊和沃尔玛是例外。“大卫的茶”总部位于加拿大蒙特利尔，3月份关闭了231个门店，第二季度销售额减少了1,210万美元。截至5月2日的三个月的销售额下降了27.3％，至3220万美元，批发和在线收入增长了930万美元，至1,700万美元。在线销售反映了茶叶研究中心Rowe所提到的趋势：无论是在购物中心还是在市区，线上的茶叶买家仍然热衷他们当地的茶店。

“Sales in grocery stores and pharmacies across Canada continues solid growth,” according to Frank Zitella, who is both CFO and COO at DAVIDsTEA. He wrote in a July 31 earnings report that “with first quarter sales growth of over 120% year-over-year, we are extremely pleased that our loyal tea-loving customers have shifted to buying our teas online, and in supermarkets and drugstores. The strong performance of these sales channels provided us with the confidence that we are on the right path for the future.”

“大卫的茶”首席财务官兼首席运营官Frank Zitella表示：“加拿大杂货店和药房的销售额继续稳步增长。”他在7月31日的收益报告中写道：“第一季度的销售同比增长超过120％，让人非常开心的是，我们忠实的茶叶客户，已经转向在网上以及超市和药店购买我们的茶叶。这些销售渠道的强劲表现使我们充满信心，我们正朝着正确的道路前进。”

Calls to wholesalers confirm that while online sales have eased the painful loss of tea house closures, declining monthly orders from restaurants and hotels resulted in orders that are no where near pre-pandemic norms. The collapse of restaurant dining, which accounts for 20% of tea sales globally, is the biggest cause. Some 2.2 million restaurants worldwide are not expected to survive through 2020. Closings have a greater impact on coffee sales in the U.S. but in tea drinking nations like the UK and Russia the shift from away-from-home to at-home preparation has been significant.

通过致电批发商证实，尽管在线销售缓解了茶馆关闭的损失，但饭店和旅馆的订单与疫情之前相差甚远，餐厅无法就餐是主要原因，餐厅销售的茶叶占全球茶类消费的20％。预计2020年，全球约220万家餐厅将无法幸存。餐厅休业对美国咖啡的销售影响更大，但在英国和俄罗斯等主要茶叶消费国，从“户外消费喝茶”到“在家自制饮茶”的转变非常重要。

（本文节选自8月《茶世界》，更多资讯请关注第462期具体内容）

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